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The AI Trade Monitor · Market · 2026-10-26

The AI Trade Monitor: AI stocks -15.6% this month vs -0.9% for the S&P 500

An equal-weighted basket of 18 AI-infrastructure companies (chips, networking, power and the largest AI spenders) is -15.6% over the past month against -0.9% for the S&P 500, and +56.4% over 12 months against +15.0%. It is 20% below its 12-month high. Leading this month: Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, Amazon; lagging: Credo Technology, Bloom Energy, Astera Labs.

12 months: the AI trade against the S&P 500
+0%+50%+100%AI basket +56%S&P 500 +15%Oct 2025Oct 2026

The basket weights each company equally from the start of the period. It is today's list of AI-infrastructure names, so it carries some hindsight: companies are in it partly because they became AI leaders. A gap of +41 points over 12 months shows how much of this market's story the AI build-out has been.

The basket, best to worst over one month

Company1 week1 month3 months12 months
Microsoft (MSFT)-0.9%+5.3%+35.1%+1.6%
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)+5.8%+2.2%+49.6%+12.1%
Amazon (AMZN)-0.8%-0.6%+7.2%+13.8%
Nvidia (NVDA)-1.5%-6.1%+7.5%+17.3%
Alphabet (GOOG)-5.8%-6.4%-2.8%+26.0%
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) (TSM)+1.4%-7.2%+5.1%+46.4%
Broadcom (AVGO)-2.2%-8.2%-15.9%-4.8%
Amphenol (APH)-6.6%-10.8%-0.6%+15.7%
GE Vernova (GEV)-11.5%-14.7%-18.2%+41.8%
Dell Technologies (DELL)+1.2%-14.8%+6.9%+206.9%
Arista Networks (ANET)-2.6%-16.2%+0.9%+17.6%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)-2.3%-17.9%+4.4%+124.5%
Micron Technology (MU)-0.1%-18.8%-2.5%+342.6%
Supermicro (SMCI)+4.1%-20.6%+10.5%-37.3%
Vertiv (VRT)-5.9%-20.8%-32.4%+13.4%
Credo Technology (CRDO)-13.2%-24.8%-29.2%+7.4%
Bloom Energy (BE)-12.7%-27.5%+2.7%+104.8%
Astera Labs (ALAB)-10.0%-28.7%-9.0%+66.1%

Basket against the market

PeriodAI basketS&P 500Gap
1 week-3.6%-0.4%-3.2 pts
1 month-15.6%-0.9%-14.7 pts
3 months-1.8%+3.1%-4.9 pts
12 months+56.4%+15.0%+41.4 pts

AI scorecard: each company by the numbers

CompanyRevenue growth, latest quarterP/E (trailing)Insiders, 90 daysWhere it standsNext earnings
Micron Technology (MU)+345.7%24xsold $55.9 million net28% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayDec 23
Bloom Energy (BE)+130.4%n/msold $21.8 million net44% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 26
Credo Technology (CRDO)+114.7%73xsold $97.9 million net51% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesNov 30
Nvidia (NVDA)+105.9%26xsold $765.6 million net12% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 17
Astera Labs (ALAB)+104.5%179xsold $127.3 million net47% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Supermicro (SMCI)+93.2%8xsold $24.4 million net37% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)+92.8%108xsold $103.5 million net6% below its 52-week high; above its 50- and 200-day averagesNov 2
Broadcom (AVGO)+85.5%47xsold $250.0 million net33% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesDec 9
Dell Technologies (DELL)+57.7%25xsold $1.0 billion net22% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 23
Amphenol (APH)+55.0%38xsold $48.5 million net16% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 28
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)+50.1%133xsold $104.0 million net20% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Arista Networks (ANET)+37.7%60xsold $715.5 million net20% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Alphabet (GOOG)+24.2%17xNo trades reported20% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 28
Vertiv (VRT)+24.1%50xsold $3.9 million net48% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 28
GE Vernova (GEV)+21.9%28xNo trades reported31% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 28
Amazon (AMZN)+19.6%19xsold $365.0 million net13% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayOct 28
Microsoft (MSFT)+17.7%22xsold $75.4 million net3% below its 52-week high; above its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 27
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) (TSM)Not available24xbought $6K net14% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayDate not announced

Revenue growth compares the latest quarter with the same quarter a year earlier (each company's SEC filings), fastest first. P/E uses the last four quarters' earnings (n/m = not meaningful). Insider figure is open-market purchases minus sales reported on Form 4.

What this means

How much AI is in the model portfolio?

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