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The AI Trade Monitor · Market · 2026-10-19

The AI Trade Monitor: AI stocks -8.3% this month vs +0.3% for the S&P 500

An equal-weighted basket of 18 AI-infrastructure companies (chips, networking, power and the largest AI spenders) is -8.3% over the past month against +0.3% for the S&P 500, and +58.6% over 12 months against +16.0%. It is 16% below its 12-month high. Leading this month: Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, Amphenol; lagging: Bloom Energy, Supermicro, Dell Technologies.

12 months: the AI trade against the S&P 500
+0%+50%AI basket +59%S&P 500 +16%Oct 2025Oct 2026

The basket weights each company equally from the start of the period. It is today's list of AI-infrastructure names, so it carries some hindsight: companies are in it partly because they became AI leaders. A gap of +43 points over 12 months shows how much of this market's story the AI build-out has been.

The basket, best to worst over one month

Company1 week1 month3 months12 months
Microsoft (MSFT)-1.1%+6.3%+31.8%+3.9%
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)-11.0%+5.6%+38.0%+3.6%
Amphenol (APH)-9.0%+1.4%+5.6%+27.2%
Credo Technology (CRDO)-21.6%+0.9%-20.0%+29.1%
GE Vernova (GEV)-8.3%-0.4%-14.6%+49.9%
Amazon (AMZN)-4.7%-0.5%+0.0%+16.0%
Alphabet (GOOG)-3.1%-2.0%-4.1%+34.2%
Nvidia (NVDA)-6.6%-2.4%+5.5%+19.4%
Astera Labs (ALAB)-16.5%-2.6%-7.5%+77.0%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)-13.0%-3.0%+5.0%+121.6%
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) (TSM)-9.0%-4.1%+2.8%+36.8%
Broadcom (AVGO)-9.1%-5.2%-12.9%-5.7%
Micron Technology (MU)-14.6%-10.1%+1.5%+358.3%
Arista Networks (ANET)-18.3%-11.3%+4.5%+23.4%
Vertiv (VRT)-15.0%-14.5%-29.2%+14.5%
Bloom Energy (BE)-21.1%-21.2%+12.3%+89.8%
Supermicro (SMCI)-24.4%-21.6%+32.7%-41.4%
Dell Technologies (DELL)-22.9%-23.2%+18.5%+197.7%

Basket against the market

PeriodAI basketS&P 500Gap
1 week-14.1%-2.0%-12.2 pts
1 month-8.3%+0.3%-8.6 pts
3 months+1.3%+3.1%-1.8 pts
12 months+58.6%+16.0%+42.6 pts

AI scorecard: each company by the numbers

CompanyRevenue growth, latest quarterP/E (trailing)Insiders, 90 daysWhere it standsNext earnings
Micron Technology (MU)+345.7%24xsold $90.4 million net28% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayDec 23
Bloom Energy (BE)+130.4%n/msold $21.8 million net36% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayOct 22
Credo Technology (CRDO)+114.7%73xsold $101.4 million net44% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesNov 30
Nvidia (NVDA)+105.9%26xsold $765.6 million net10% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 17
Astera Labs (ALAB)+104.5%179xsold $127.3 million net41% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Supermicro (SMCI)+93.2%8xsold $24.4 million net43% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesNov 2
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)+92.8%108xsold $98.6 million net11% below its 52-week high; above its 50- and 200-day averagesNov 2
Broadcom (AVGO)+85.5%47xsold $250.0 million net31% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesDec 9
Dell Technologies (DELL)+57.7%25xsold $953.8 million net23% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 23
Amphenol (APH)+55.0%38xsold $48.5 million net10% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayOct 28
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)+50.1%133xsold $104.0 million net19% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Arista Networks (ANET)+37.7%60xsold $686.0 million net18% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayNov 2
Alphabet (GOOG)+24.2%17xNo trades reported15% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 28
Vertiv (VRT)+24.1%50xsold $3.9 million net45% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 20
GE Vernova (GEV)+21.9%28xNo trades reported22% below its 52-week high; below its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 28
Amazon (AMZN)+19.6%19xsold $365.0 million net12% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayOct 28
Microsoft (MSFT)+17.7%22xsold $71.4 million net3% below its 52-week high; above its 50- and 200-day averagesOct 27
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) (TSM)Not available30xbought $6K net15% below its 52-week high; above its 200-day average, below its 50-dayDate not announced

Revenue growth compares the latest quarter with the same quarter a year earlier (each company's SEC filings), fastest first. P/E uses the last four quarters' earnings (n/m = not meaningful). Insider figure is open-market purchases minus sales reported on Form 4.

What this means

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