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The AI Trade Monitor · Market · 2026-10-12

The AI Trade Monitor: AI stocks +10.6% this month vs +3.0% for the S&P 500

An equal-weighted basket of 18 AI-infrastructure companies (chips, networking, power and the largest AI spenders) is +10.6% over the past month against +3.0% for the S&P 500, and +81.8% over 12 months against +16.9%. It is at or near its 12-month high. Leading this month: Credo Technology, Palantir Technologies, Advanced Micro Devices; lagging: Amazon, Broadcom, Vertiv.

12 months: the AI trade against the S&P 500
+0%+50%AI basket +82%S&P 500 +17%Oct 2025Oct 2026

The basket weights each company equally from the start of the period. It is today's list of AI-infrastructure names, so it carries some hindsight: companies are in it partly because they became AI leaders. A gap of +65 points over 12 months shows how much of this market's story the AI build-out has been.

The basket, best to worst over one month

Company1 week1 month3 months12 months
Credo Technology (CRDO)-1.0%+35.1%-8.6%+45.5%
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)+10.8%+26.0%+60.8%+13.9%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)-4.1%+20.8%+13.8%+158.2%
Astera Labs (ALAB)-2.3%+20.3%-5.5%+56.0%
Dell Technologies (DELL)+4.2%+15.7%+37.4%+260.8%
Arista Networks (ANET)+4.5%+14.7%+19.6%+37.7%
Supermicro (SMCI)-4.2%+12.0%+51.3%-28.7%
Amphenol (APH)+0.3%+8.9%+12.0%+39.7%
GE Vernova (GEV)+1.6%+8.7%-3.6%+61.0%
Microsoft (MSFT)+3.4%+8.7%+37.1%+2.8%
Bloom Energy (BE)-3.0%+8.5%+20.1%+220.3%
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) (TSM)-4.1%+6.2%+7.8%+50.4%
Alphabet (GOOG)+2.2%+5.3%-0.7%+42.1%
Micron Technology (MU)-4.3%+5.3%+9.8%+424.1%
Nvidia (NVDA)-2.0%+5.0%+12.8%+21.5%
Amazon (AMZN)+4.3%+4.2%+6.1%+16.5%
Broadcom (AVGO)+1.8%+0.4%-5.7%+5.4%
Vertiv (VRT)-3.7%-2.1%-20.6%+45.2%

Basket against the market

PeriodAI basketS&P 500Gap
1 week-0.6%+1.2%-1.7 pts
1 month+10.6%+3.0%+7.6 pts
3 months+10.8%+4.2%+6.7 pts
12 months+81.8%+16.9%+64.9 pts

What this means

How much AI is in the model portfolio?

Subscribers see the model portfolio's AI exposure, direct and indirect, and the model's rank for every company here.

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Prices from Torvanta's end-of-day data. The basket is Torvanta's research basket, not an index or a fund. Research only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Rankings change as data changes and can be wrong. Torvanta and its founder may hold positions in securities discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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