How the three model portfolios would have done from January 2006 to October 2026, against the S&P 500. In the backtest, every style beat the index by 8 to 10 points a year over the full period, and fell less in the two worst crashes. In ordinary pullbacks, they swung harder than the index.
| 1 year | 3 years per year | 5 years per year | 20 years per year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 113.0% | 60.6% | 27.2% | 21.5% |
| Adaptive | 97.0% | 53.5% | 25.1% | 20.3% |
| Patient | 94.9% | 52.1% | 23.2% | 19.4% |
| S&P 500 | 13.5% | 21.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% |
1-year is the total for the last 12 months. 3-, 5- and 20-year figures are yearly averages (compound).
Log scale, so equal distances are equal percentage changes. $10,000 in January 2006 would have grown to about $576,243 in Active, $472,719 in Adaptive, $403,032 in Patient and $90,850 in the S&P 500.
| $10,000 invested in | Active | Adaptive | Patient | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2006 | $576,243 | $472,719 | $403,032 | $90,850 |
| January 2016 | $89,677 | $93,712 | $81,634 | $45,194 |
| January 2021 | $30,604 | $36,739 | $33,790 | $22,374 |
One investment of $10,000, left to grow with every trade and dividend reinvested. Taxes are not included. The extra 8 to 10 points a year is what separates the columns: small in any one year, large over a decade or two.
Over 20 years the portfolios fell about 65 to 72% as much as the S&P 500 in its down months, and recovered from their worst fall in roughly half the time. In the 2022 bear market they fell slightly more than the index.
| Year | Active | Adaptive | Patient | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct) | +69.4% | +67.2% | +66.0% | +14.5% |
| 2025 | +34.9% | +32.9% | +30.9% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | +35.3% | +40.2% | +40.2% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +11.8% | +14.9% | +13.4% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | −25.2% | −19.8% | −23.7% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +18.4% | +28.0% | +28.0% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | +46.2% | +38.9% | +33.8% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +32.9% | +31.2% | +30.2% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | +10.7% | +6.5% | +6.3% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +16.4% | +21.6% | +21.6% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +17.0% | +8.1% | +7.2% | +12.0% |
| 2015 | +7.5% | +3.9% | +4.0% | +1.3% |
| 2014 | +22.7% | +30.2% | +30.2% | +13.5% |
| 2013 | +50.1% | +47.0% | +47.0% | +32.3% |
| 2012 | +25.8% | +21.4% | +21.4% | +16.0% |
| 2011 | +2.8% | +5.9% | +6.0% | +1.9% |
| 2010 | +37.3% | +24.5% | +21.5% | +15.1% |
| 2009 | +103.9% | +66.5% | +51.8% | +26.4% |
| 2008 | −33.9% | −31.6% | −24.9% | −36.8% |
| 2007 | +11.5% | +12.5% | +12.5% | +5.1% |
| 2006 | +21.7% | +23.6% | +23.6% | +15.8% |
Subscribers get every trade in the Active, Adaptive and Patient portfolios, sized and explained, plus the Stock Analyst's rating and fair value for every S&P 500 company.
See plansHypothetical performance: these results were produced by applying the current model to historical data and were not achieved by any account. They benefit from being calculated after the fact, do not reflect actual trading, liquidity, taxes or timing, and the rules may have been influenced by the same data. Returns include reinvested dividends and estimated trading costs. Torvanta is research only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.